Time for a global warming update
Sep. 10th, 2022 07:19 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
lprovenI am trying to train myself out of the marketing lizards weasel-words "climate change". It's not just change: it's a specific change which is very visible.
At the end of last year, I posted about this. It did quite well.
Here's the post I wrote then, when the Thwaites Glacier started to crumble:
https://lproven.dreamwidth.org/303704.html
It has some numbers for energy transport and things which you tend not to see much.
Well, the Thwaites is continuing to deteriorate:
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/05/world/thwaites-doomsday-glacier-sea-level-climate/index.html
Even the unpaywalled bit of this sets the context:
https://fortune.com/2022/08/02/worst-case-climate-scenarios-dangerously-underexplored/
On multiple trend lines -- more or less every one you look at -- we are consistently hitting worse-case curves. A few examples --
Warming: https://twitter.com/PCarterClimate/status/1566638132925448193
Oceanic acidification: https://twitter.com/PCarterClimate/status/1567345902637166592
CO2: https://twitter.com/PCarterClimate/status/1567980456548900864
Ice loss: https://twitter.com/CsuiteTechPoint/status/1568200250203979781
We are heading for a worst-case outcome:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/climate-change-scientists-say-worst-case-scenario-should-not-be-ignored/M4RBEJGO46PJQOZ3XQSFQY7ZXU/
The Paris accords were that 1.5º C would be catastrophic and must be avoided. We are now at around 1.1º-1.2º. 1.5º C by 2030 looks quite likely.
Even the financial papers are alarmed:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-08/climate-tipping-points-may-be-triggered-even-if-warming-peaks-at-1-5c#xj4y7vzkg
At the current rate, a rise of 5º-7º C by the end of the century looks quite likely.
This has been clear for over 20 years now:
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2001/07/010720093052.htm
Even at half that, most of the land that currently houses most of the human race will become uninhabitable:
https://bigthink.com/strange-maps/what-the-world-will-look-like-4degc-warmer/
That is plausible in my lifetime, and I am 54. But my daughter is not yet 3.
In 15-25 years or so, entire nation states disappearing, and climate refugees in the *billions* heading for the sub-polar regions.
That is a situation that I do not think our technological civilisation can withstand.
At the end of last year, I posted about this. It did quite well.
Here's the post I wrote then, when the Thwaites Glacier started to crumble:
https://lproven.dreamwidth.org/303704.html
It has some numbers for energy transport and things which you tend not to see much.
Well, the Thwaites is continuing to deteriorate:
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/05/world/thwaites-doomsday-glacier-sea-level-climate/index.html
Even the unpaywalled bit of this sets the context:
https://fortune.com/2022/08/02/worst-case-climate-scenarios-dangerously-underexplored/
On multiple trend lines -- more or less every one you look at -- we are consistently hitting worse-case curves. A few examples --
Warming: https://twitter.com/PCarterClimate/status/1566638132925448193
Oceanic acidification: https://twitter.com/PCarterClimate/status/1567345902637166592
CO2: https://twitter.com/PCarterClimate/status/1567980456548900864
Ice loss: https://twitter.com/CsuiteTechPoint/status/1568200250203979781
We are heading for a worst-case outcome:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/climate-change-scientists-say-worst-case-scenario-should-not-be-ignored/M4RBEJGO46PJQOZ3XQSFQY7ZXU/
The Paris accords were that 1.5º C would be catastrophic and must be avoided. We are now at around 1.1º-1.2º. 1.5º C by 2030 looks quite likely.
Even the financial papers are alarmed:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-08/climate-tipping-points-may-be-triggered-even-if-warming-peaks-at-1-5c#xj4y7vzkg
At the current rate, a rise of 5º-7º C by the end of the century looks quite likely.
This has been clear for over 20 years now:
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2001/07/010720093052.htm
Even at half that, most of the land that currently houses most of the human race will become uninhabitable:
https://bigthink.com/strange-maps/what-the-world-will-look-like-4degc-warmer/
That is plausible in my lifetime, and I am 54. But my daughter is not yet 3.
In 15-25 years or so, entire nation states disappearing, and climate refugees in the *billions* heading for the sub-polar regions.
That is a situation that I do not think our technological civilisation can withstand.
